• The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) of the United States is working   to test nuclear-powered prototypes in space by 2027
• Since the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, over 11,000 satellites have been launched, but 70,000 more could be launched in the next decades
• Governance of space for militarisation needs to be strengthened and should be as per rule-based order which is just and equitable for all Nations

The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) of the United States is working to test nuclear-powered prototypes in space by 2027 in order to provide power, speed, and responsiveness for sustaining a space operational advantage. It will help the Department of Defense (DoD) in expanding its space operations.

The goal of DIU’s programme is to construct compact, highly manoeuvrable spacecraft that utilize fusion and radioisotopes.

Space exploration has long fascinated humans, but burgeoning financial and geopolitical interests are increasingly impacting this frontier. While early space activity was undertaken or supported by the government, private investment has increased in the previous decade.

Because of competition from new players trying to deliver services from LEO or MEO, the old Geostationary Orbit (GEO) commercial satellite market, which has dominated the communications sector for decades, is gradually losing commercial value. More recently, in the last decade, the funding of new applications for space-based activities has accelerated: enterprises, start-ups, and research organizations are expanding, raising billions of dollars, and lowering the cost of launch systems, notably in LEO.

If not properly managed, an increase in the quantity and diversity of actors operating in space could create new or worsen existing frictions. In the commercial, civic, and military sectors, the aim is to replace traditional big and expensive single geostationary satellite systems with a more distributed system of numerous smaller satellites in low earth orbit (LEO).

The Global Risks Report 2022, by the World Economic Forum, highlights that Since the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, over 11,000 satellites have been launched, but 70,000 more could be launched in the next decades if current plans are carried out.

Many of these satellites, once sent into orbit, could remain there for hundreds of years unless they are actively deactivated. Because of decreased costs and fewer hurdles to entry, smaller, low-cost satellites are also becoming more common. While the risk remains minimal, an increase in the number of satellites raises the possibility of collisions or, at the very least, the requirement for emergency manoeuvres to avoid impact.

In May 2021, a piece of debris pierced the robotic arm of the International Space Station (ISS). Strikes like this have been observed for decades, but they may become more common in the future. The “Kessler Effect,” as one hypothesis puts it, suggests the potential repercussions of a cascading effect.

National space goals also increase the risk of space militarization. In 2019, the US military established a Space Force as a separate branch of the armed forces, while Japan’s Space Operations Squadron and the UK’s Space Command were both established in the previous two years.

The French Air Force was renamed the Air and Space Force in 2021. An anti-satellite weapons test conducted by Russia in November 2021 resulted in large debris, posing a hazard to astronauts on the International Space Station. A hypersonic weapons arms race, which China, Russia, and the United States are all developing and testing in the second half of 2021, risks adding to the militarization of space.

Governance of space for militarisation needs to be strengthened and should be as per rule-based order which is just and equitable for all Nations. loose governance may further intensify the completion. For example, the Outer Space Treaty prohibits nuclear weapons in space but does not address conventional weapons, which is particularly worrisome in today’s context of conventional weapons development and testing in space.

While this trend may continue, in a more crowded and competitive environment, more robust institutional governance will be required. Specific bilateral or multilateral agreements between significant space powers could help establish standards and affect global behavior.

Staff Galatick Views