The Pahalgam attack where 26 tourists were killed by terrorist in India will deepen Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic isolation. The attack, has drawn widespread international condemnation from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, France, Italy, and the UK. Even China, a close ally, condemned the attack, signalling Pakistan’s diminishing diplomatic cover. The UN Security Council’s strong condemnation and call for cooperation with investigations add pressure on Pakistan.
India responded to the attack with severe measures, including suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, closing the Attari-Wagah border crossing, expelling Pakistani military advisors, downgrading diplomatic ties, and banning Pakistani nationals from India under SAARC visa exemptions. These steps disrupt trade, travel, and water-sharing critical to Pakistan’s agriculture, which relies on 80% of the Indus River system’s flow.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, in particular, will be detrimental to Pakistan’s water security, especially during the dry season, potentially destabilizing its agricultural economy in Punjab and Sindh. The attack has strained Pakistan’s relations with regional players. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s condemnation and India’s strengthening ties with Gulf nations.
Pakistan is turning into a failed state. Pakistan’s political system is marked by frequent power struggles, military dominance, and a lack of institutional neutrality. The military’s role as a “king-maker” undermines democratic processes, with no government completing a full term. The ouster of Imran Khan in 2022 and subsequent crackdowns on his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, including arrests and media censorship, have deepened political chaos.
Pakistan has faced severe economic turmoil, with foreign exchange reserves dropping to critically low levels (e.g., ~$8 billion in 2022-23), a trade deficit of ~$50 billion, and inflation soaring to ~40%. Shortages of essential goods like food and medicine have led to public unrest, with people queuing for subsidized wheat flour. Dependence on IMF bailouts (13 in 35 years) and loans from countries like China and Saudi Arabia highlights structural weaknesses. The economy’s low tax-to-GDP ratio (12%) and failure to tax feudal elites exacerbate fiscal instability.
The resurgence of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and other militant groups, emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s 2021 return to power, has increased terrorist attacks. In 2022, attacks rose, targeting security forces and civilians, with groups like TTP, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and ISIS-K active. Fears persist that instability could allow extremists to access Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, a concern amplified by historical links between elements of the military/ISI and militant group
Ethnic and sectarian tensions, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, threaten national cohesion. The military’s suppression of groups like the PTM and Baloch activists has fueled resentment, with some warning it could “break the fabric of Pakistan.” Human rights abuses, including violence against minorities, women, and journalists, and the use of blasphemy laws, erode social trust.
The 2022 floods displaced 33 million people and destroyed 45% of cropland, exposing the state’s inability to provide basic services, further fueling public despair. Global fears center on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and strategic location. A collapsed Pakistan could destabilize the region, empower extremists, and disrupt U.S. and Chinese interests. The U.S. has invested billions to stabilize Pakistan, driven by fears of nuclear weapons falling into radical hands.
The Pahalgam attack has significantly increased Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic isolation by triggering India’s aggressive retaliatory measures, global condemnation, and a reinforced narrative of Pakistan as a terror hub. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, border closures, and expulsion of diplomats exacerbate Pakistan’s economic crisis, while international support for India isolates it further. Pakistan’s geopolitical alliances with China will serve a limited purpose in wake of growing criticism of its role in funding terrorist.
Galactik Views