Donald Trump has won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and his second term is expected to have several significant impacts on Global Geo Politics.
Trump’s skepticism towards NATO has been well-documented. His administration might push for a reevaluation of U.S. commitments, potentially leading to a more transactional approach where European allies might need to increase their military spending or face reduced U.S. support. This may increase European countries’ efforts towards self-reliance in defense.
On ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine there’s a prevalent concern that Trump might seek a quick resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This may involve encouraging Ukraine into concessions and resolution with Russia. This might help in containing Russian actions not only in Ukraine but potentially spilling over to other areas like Moldova or the Baltic states. This will help the global economy by easing sanctions on Russia and creating an environment for reintegrating Russia into global economy and possibly keeping the BRICS from gaining strong hold in World affairs.
Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly the high tariffs on Chinese goods and a universal import tariff, could lead to significant trade disruptions. These policies might initiate or escalate trade wars, affecting global trade dynamics, increasing costs for American consumers, and potentially leading to retaliatory measures from other nations.
Indian PM Shri Narendra Modi congratulated Trump on victory.
On the issues of energy transition and Climate Change Trump second term in office may mean a rollback of environmental regulations and a withdrawal from or reduced commitment to international climate agreements like the Paris Accord. This shift could hinder efforts to combat climate change, with potential long-term environmental consequences. However the unpredictability associated with Trump’s foreign policy may return, where sudden policy shifts or confrontational rhetoric might become common. This unpredictability is seen by some as a strategy to keep adversaries off-balance but can equally unsettle allies.
Trump has shown a more pragmatic stance towards Israel, which might lead to a more dynamic U.S.-Israel relationship, possibly influencing the dynamics in the Middle East, especially concerning issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The U.S. economy’s leverage in global markets would likely continue to be used as a tool, potentially leveraging economic policy in international relations, affecting global economic stability and growth.
Relations with China might oscillate between confrontation, especially on trade issues, and grand bargain scenarios where unpredictability could either lead to significant negotiations or further tensions, particularly concerning Taiwan.
Trump’s policies on immigration could lead to changes in U.S. border policies, affecting migration patterns globally and influencing international discourse on immigration, asylum, and human rights.
Galactik Views